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Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Forecast

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Quick Introduction

Because low-oxygen waters impact fish and other marine animals, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and partners are developing computer models to accurately predict when and where low-oxygen or "hypoxic" conditions may form. Their goal is to help anglers and others better plan on-the-water activities.

Part of the broader Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System, this product simulates dissolved-oxygen levels in the bottom waters of the Bay's main stem. It simulates 5 conditions:

  1. Today's Forecast: conditions throughout the Bay today,
  2. Tomorrow's Forecast: conditions throughout the Bay tomorrow,
  3. 5-Day forecast: conditions throughout the Bay in 5 days,
  4. Forecast Trend: Change over 5 days, and
  5. Relative to Historical Conditions: how conditions in the Bay relate to today's average conditions from 1986 to the present

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia forecast for Chesapeake Bay

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Difference From Long-Term Average

Current conditions are compared to the long-term average conditions to put current conditions in perspective relative to average conditions. Long-term average conditions were calculated using a computer model simulation spanning 1985 through 2023. The below map shows the difference between current conditions and the long-term average conditions on the day noted.For more information on the long-term averages please see the Chesapeake Atlas.

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