VIMS

Acidification Forecasts

AcidificationSummary
Quick Summary

Acidification occurs when the amount of CO2 dissolved in the water changes, thus changing the water pH. Acidification of estuaries and the coastal ocean can have detrimental effects on shellfish, such as oysters, by impacting their growth and survival. The impacts of acidification may be more prominent in lower salinity waters, particularly those impacted by eutrophication. Eutrophication leads to excessive growth of algae and a corresponding increase in respiration (decay of the algae). The increased respiration decreases the pH through the production of CO2. This means the Chesapeake Bay may be especially vulnerable to acidification. Water CO2 concentrations are also increasing globally as the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, resulting in a global-scale decrease in pH.

Click on the headings below to see Nowcast, Forecast, and Trend line plots and maps. One set of maps shows the entire Chesapeake Bay and a second set focuses on the James, York, and Rappahannock Rivers.

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pH Line Plots

pH can be viewed through time at select locations to understand the seasonal and weekly changes in pH in the Chesapeake Bay. Overlaying the modeled pH on top of long-term averages from observed data shows how the forecasted pH compares to the historical average. Grey lines show one standard deviation above and below the average.

pH_station_map

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ph_cb43C

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ph_le23

ph_cb71

ph_le36

ph_we42

ph_cb64

TribPhSurf
pH - Surface Maps

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ph_forecast

ph_trend

J_ph_nowcast

J_ph_Forecast

J_ph_trend

TribAlkSurf
Alkalinity - Surface Maps

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alk_forecast

alk_trend

J_alk_nowcast

J_alk_forecast

J_alk_trend

BayOmegaSurf
Aragonite Saturation State (Omega) - Surface Maps

Note: As part of an active research project, the aragonite saturation state (omega) from the forecast model is currently being improved. Please interpret with caution.

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omega_Forecast

omega_Trend

J_omega_Nowcast

J_omega_Forecast

J_omega_trend

pHbottom
pH - Bottom Maps

pHNowcastBottompHForecastBottom

 phTrendBot

Trib_pH_Nowcast_Bottom

Trib_pH_Forecast_Bottom

Trib_pH_Trend_Bottom

bottom alkalinity
Alkalinity - Bottom Maps

Alk_Nowcast_bottomAlk_Forecast_bottom

Alk_Trend_bottom

Trib_Alk_Nowcast_bottom

Trib_Alk_Forecast_bottom

Trib_Alk_Trend_bottom

omega_bottom
Aragonite Saturation State (Omega) - Bottom Maps

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omega_Forecast_bottom

omega_Trend_bottom

Trib_omega_Nowcast_bottom

Trib_Omega_Forecast_bottom

Trib_omega_Trend_bottom